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Polet Ljubić vs FAP — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Polet Ljubić
Polet Ljubić
FT
0 – 3
FAP
FAP
4/9/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 20Stadion FK Polet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Polet Ljubić34%
×Draw26%
FAP40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polet Ljubić
1.26
FAP
1.38

FAP creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Polet Ljubić
1.60
FAP
1.51

allows per match

Polet Ljubić
1.24
FAP
0.91

finishing

Polet Ljubić+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polet Ljubić ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Polet Ljubić or draw
60%
Polet Ljubić or FAP
74%
Draw or FAP
66%

Winning margin

Polet Ljubić wins by 2+
15%
FAP wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Polet Ljubić 1+ goals
72%
Polet Ljubić 2+ goals
36%
Polet Ljubić 3+ goals
13%
FAP 1+ goals
75%
FAP 2+ goals
40%
FAP 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Polet Ljubić (draw refunded)
46%
FAP (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polet Ljubić at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

FAP away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polet Ljubić attack 1.60 + FAP defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.26

FAP attack 1.51 + Polet Ljubić defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polet Ljubić scores more
34%
level
26%
FAP scores more
40%

FAP at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polet Ljubić vs FAP

FAP beat Polet Ljubić 3-0 in Srpska Liga - West on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Polet in Čačak.