Polet Dorćol 1–3 Sindjelic Beograd: Result & Stats

Polet Dorćol

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Sindjelic Beograd

11/18/2023

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 15Stadion FK GSP Polet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Polet Dorćol43%

×Draw26%

Sindjelic Beograd31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polet DorćolExpected goals in this matchSindjelic Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.18

Polet Dorćol

1.45

Sindjelic Beograd

1.18

Polet Dorćol creates 23% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 49 away

1.52

creates per match

0.86

1.49

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Polet Dorćol

1.52

Sindjelic Beograd

0.86

allows per match

Polet Dorćol

1.49

Sindjelic Beograd

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polet Dorćol+0.00on par

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polet Dorćol ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Polet Dorćol or draw

69%

Polet Dorćol or Sindjelic Beograd

74%

Draw or Sindjelic Beograd

57%

Winning margin

Polet Dorćol wins by 2+

21%

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Polet Dorćol 1+ goals

77%

Polet Dorćol 2+ goals

42%

Polet Dorćol 3+ goals

18%

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals

69%

Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals

33%

Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)

58%

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polet Dorćol at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polet Dorćol attack 1.52 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Polet Dorćol scores more

43%

level

26%

Sindjelic Beograd scores more

31%

Polet Dorćol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Polet Dorćol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff