Polessya vs VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka — Persha Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Polessya52%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Polessya creates 62% more chances
Season form · 36 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Polessya ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Polessya at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Polessya attack 1.61 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 0.96 + Polessya defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Polessya at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka substitutes
Bukovyna
Livyi Bereh
Chornomorets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Inhulets
Metal Kharkiv
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Yarud Mariupol'
Probiy Horodenka
UCSA
Prykarpattia
Nyva Ternopil
Chernihiv
Vorskla Poltava
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Metalurh ZaporizhyaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Polessya host VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka on Saturday, 31 October 2020 at 11:30. The match is part of the Persha Liga 2019/2020 season.
Persha Liga: Polessya 3–1 VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
Polessya beat VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3-1 in Persha Liga on October 31, 2020.
Goals: P. Milesin (42'), Y. Galenko (58'), A. Kovalev (70'), D. Galenkov (88').
The match was played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova in Kiev.