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Polessya vs Stromsgodset — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Polessya
Polessya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
I. Krasnopir 72'
B. Lednev 53'
M. Spiten 36'
1/27/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Polessya57%
×Draw21%
Stromsgodset22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polessya
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.28

Polessya creates 67% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Polessya
1.85
Stromsgodset
1.71

allows per match

Polessya
0.85
Stromsgodset
2.43

finishing

Polessya+0.00on par
Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polessya ↓

Stromsgodset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Polessya or draw
78%
Polessya or Stromsgodset
79%
Draw or Stromsgodset
43%

Winning margin

Polessya wins by 2+
35%
Stromsgodset wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Polessya 1+ goals
88%
Polessya 2+ goals
63%
Polessya 3+ goals
36%
Stromsgodset 1+ goals
72%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
37%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Polessya (draw refunded)
72%
Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polessya at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polessya attack 1.85 + Stromsgodset defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.14

Stromsgodset attack 1.71 + Polessya defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Polessya scores more
57%
level
21%
Stromsgodset scores more
22%

Polessya at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
M. Spiten
53'
B. Lednev
72'
I. Krasnopir
Polessya
Stromsgodset
Ruslan Rotan
Manager: Ruslan Rotan
Dag-Eilev Fagermo
Manager: Dag-Eilev Fagermo

Friendlies Clubs: Polessya 2–1 Stromsgodset

Polessya beat Stromsgodset 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 27, 2026.

Goals: M. Spiten (36'), B. Lednev (53'), I. Krasnopir (72').