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Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy — Premier League 2019

Polessya
Polessya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
3/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Polessya37%
×Draw27%
LNZ Cherkasy35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polessya
1.24
LNZ Cherkasy
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Polessya
2.01
LNZ Cherkasy
1.37

allows per match

Polessya
1.02
LNZ Cherkasy
0.47

finishing

Polessya-0.46scores less
LNZ Cherkasy+0.46scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polessya ↓

LNZ Cherkasy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Polessya or draw
65%
Polessya or LNZ Cherkasy
73%
Draw or LNZ Cherkasy
63%

Winning margin

Polessya wins by 2+
16%
LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Polessya 1+ goals
71%
Polessya 2+ goals
35%
Polessya 3+ goals
13%
LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals
70%
LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
34%
LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Polessya (draw refunded)
51%
LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polessya at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.02 · 11 matches

LNZ Cherkasy away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.47 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polessya attack 2.01 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.24

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.37 + Polessya defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Polessya scores more
37%
level
27%
LNZ Cherkasy scores more
35%

Polessya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy

LNZ Cherkasy beat Polessya 1-0 in Premier League on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Zhytomyr.