LNZ Cherkasy 0–1 Polessya: Result & Stats

LNZ Cherkasy

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Polessya

B. Krushynskyi 54'

3/28/2025

Premier League · Round 22Cherkasy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy35%

×Draw26%

Polessya39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LNZ CherkasyExpected goals in this matchPolessya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.41

LNZ Cherkasy

1.33

Polessya

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.57

creates per match

1.98

0.83

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy

1.57

Polessya

1.98

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy

0.83

Polessya

1.10

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy-0.01on par

Polessya-0.60scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy ↓

Polessya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy or draw

61%

LNZ Cherkasy or Polessya

74%

Draw or Polessya

65%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+

16%

Polessya wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals

74%

LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals

38%

LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals

15%

Polessya 1+ goals

76%

Polessya 2+ goals

41%

Polessya 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)

48%

Polessya (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 9 matches

Polessya away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.57 + Polessya defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Polessya attack 1.98 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

LNZ Cherkasy scores more

35%

level

26%

Polessya scores more

39%

Polessya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55

B. Krushynskyi

Polessya · M

7.6

Match Events

33'

Serhii Chobotenko

34'

Illia Putria

49'

Eduard Sarapiyy

54'

B. Krushynskyi↳ O. Nazarenko

64'

O. Biton← B. Krushynskyi

64'

F. Batista← André Gonçalves

67'

68'

70'

75'

81'

V. Naumets← Eynel Soares

81'

S. Nonikashvili← V. Tankovskyi

86'

A. Bristrić← O. Nazarenko

86'

Lucas Taylor← G. Maisuradze

87'

V. Boiko← O. Thill

90+1'

Admir Bristrić

90+2'

M. Melnychenko← O. Hutsuliak

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LNZPolessya

Overview

61%Possession39%

8Total Shots12

0.35Expected Goals (xG)1.70

3Corners7

7Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots12

3On Target3

3Off Target3

2Blocked6

2Inside Box6

6Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

455Total Passes270

391Accurate Passes209

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls18

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1