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Polessya vs Kramatorsk — Persha Liga 2019

Polessya
Polessya
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kramatorsk
Kramatorsk
5/16/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 26Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Polessya52%
×Draw25%
Kramatorsk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polessya
1.59
Kramatorsk
0.97

Polessya creates 64% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 40 away

creates per match

Polessya
1.61
Kramatorsk
0.85

allows per match

Polessya
1.08
Kramatorsk
1.57

finishing

Polessya+0.00on par
Kramatorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polessya ↓

Kramatorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Polessya or draw
77%
Polessya or Kramatorsk
75%
Draw or Kramatorsk
48%

Winning margin

Polessya wins by 2+
27%
Kramatorsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Polessya 1+ goals
80%
Polessya 2+ goals
47%
Polessya 3+ goals
21%
Kramatorsk 1+ goals
62%
Kramatorsk 2+ goals
25%
Kramatorsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Polessya (draw refunded)
69%
Kramatorsk (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polessya at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Kramatorsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polessya attack 1.61 + Kramatorsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kramatorsk attack 0.85 + Polessya defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Polessya scores more
52%
level
25%
Kramatorsk scores more
23%

Polessya at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polessya vs Kramatorsk

Kramatorsk beat Polessya 2-1 in Persha Liga on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Zhytomyr.