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Polessya vs Derry City — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Polessya
Polessya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Derry City
Derry City
1/23/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Polessya57%
×Draw23%
Derry City20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polessya
1.76
Derry City
0.93

Polessya creates 89% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Polessya
1.85
Derry City
1.00

allows per match

Polessya
0.85
Derry City
1.67

finishing

Polessya+0.00on par
Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polessya ↓

Derry City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Polessya or draw
80%
Polessya or Derry City
77%
Draw or Derry City
43%

Winning margin

Polessya wins by 2+
32%
Derry City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Polessya 1+ goals
83%
Polessya 2+ goals
52%
Polessya 3+ goals
26%
Derry City 1+ goals
61%
Derry City 2+ goals
24%
Derry City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Polessya (draw refunded)
74%
Derry City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polessya at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Derry City away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polessya attack 1.85 + Derry City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Derry City attack 1.00 + Polessya defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Polessya scores more
57%
level
23%
Derry City scores more
20%

Polessya at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Polessya
Derry
Ruslan Rotan
Manager: Ruslan Rotan
Tiernan Lynch
Manager: Tiernan Lynch

Friendlies Clubs: Polessya 2–1 Derry City

Polessya beat Derry City 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 23, 2026.