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Polessya vs Alians Lypova Dolyna — Persha Liga 2019

Polessya
Polessya
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
4/16/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 22Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Polessya39%
×Draw26%
Alians Lypova Dolyna35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polessya
1.39
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 25 away

creates per match

Polessya
1.61
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.52

allows per match

Polessya
1.08
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.16

finishing

Polessya+0.00on par
Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polessya ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Polessya or draw
65%
Polessya or Alians Lypova Dolyna
74%
Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna
61%

Winning margin

Polessya wins by 2+
18%
Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Polessya 1+ goals
75%
Polessya 2+ goals
40%
Polessya 3+ goals
16%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
73%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
37%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Polessya (draw refunded)
53%
Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polessya at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polessya attack 1.61 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.39

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.52 + Polessya defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Polessya scores more
39%
level
26%
Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
35%

Polessya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Polessya 1–2 Alians Lypova Dolyna

Alians Lypova Dolyna beat Polessya 2-1 in Persha Liga on April 16, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Zhytomyr.