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Polanka nad Odrou vs Jeseník — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Jeseník
Jeseník
11/5/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 14Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Polanka nad Odrou59%
×Draw22%
Jeseník19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polanka nad Odrou
1.92
Jeseník
0.99

Polanka nad Odrou creates 94% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 15 away

creates per match

Polanka nad Odrou
1.78
Jeseník
1.00

allows per match

Polanka nad Odrou
0.98
Jeseník
2.07

finishing

Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par
Jeseník+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polanka nad Odrou ↓

Jeseník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Polanka nad Odrou or draw
81%
Polanka nad Odrou or Jeseník
78%
Draw or Jeseník
41%

Winning margin

Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
35%
Jeseník wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
85%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
57%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
30%
Jeseník 1+ goals
63%
Jeseník 2+ goals
26%
Jeseník 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
76%
Jeseník (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polanka nad Odrou at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Jeseník away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Jeseník defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.92

Jeseník attack 1.00 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Polanka nad Odrou scores more
59%
level
22%
Jeseník scores more
19%

Polanka nad Odrou at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polanka nad Odrou vs Jeseník

Polanka nad Odrou beat Jeseník 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou in Ostrava.