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Polanka nad Odrou vs Heřmanice Slezská — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
5/8/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 21Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polanka nad Odrou83%
×Draw11%
Heřmanice Slezská6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polanka nad Odrou
3.10
Heřmanice Slezská
0.72

Polanka nad Odrou creates 331% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 17 away

creates per match

Polanka nad Odrou
1.78
Heřmanice Slezská
0.47

allows per match

Polanka nad Odrou
0.98
Heřmanice Slezská
4.41

finishing

Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par
Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polanka nad Odrou ↓

Heřmanice Slezská →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Polanka nad Odrou or draw
94%
Polanka nad Odrou or Heřmanice Slezská
89%
Draw or Heřmanice Slezská
17%

Winning margin

Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
65%
Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
95%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
81%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
58%
Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
51%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
16%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
94%
Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polanka nad Odrou at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Heřmanice Slezská away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 4.41 → ÷2 → 3.10

Heřmanice Slezská attack 0.47 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Polanka nad Odrou scores more
83%
level
11%
Heřmanice Slezská scores more
6%

Polanka nad Odrou at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Polanka nad Odrou 6–0 Heřmanice Slezská

Polanka nad Odrou beat Heřmanice Slezská 6-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou in Ostrava.