Poland W 2–2 Netherlands W: Result & Stats

Poland W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Netherlands W

P. Tomasiak 84'

E. Pajor 24'

J. Roord 47'

V. Buurman 44'

3/3/2026

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Group Stage - 1Polsat Plus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poland W33%

×Draw22%

Netherlands W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland WExpected goals in this matchNetherlands W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.00

Poland W

1.67

Netherlands W

2.00

Netherlands W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.67

2.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Poland W

1.33

Netherlands W

1.67

allows per match

Poland W

2.33

Netherlands W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland W+0.00on par

Netherlands W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland W ↓

Netherlands W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Poland W or draw

54%

Poland W or Netherlands W

78%

Draw or Netherlands W

67%

Winning margin

Poland W wins by 2+

16%

Netherlands W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Poland W 1+ goals

81%

Poland W 2+ goals

50%

Poland W 3+ goals

23%

Netherlands W 1+ goals

86%

Netherlands W 2+ goals

59%

Netherlands W 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Poland W (draw refunded)

42%

Netherlands W (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Netherlands W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland W attack 1.33 + Netherlands W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Netherlands W attack 1.67 + Poland W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Poland W scores more

33%

level

22%

Netherlands W scores more

46%

Netherlands W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Netherlands W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

E. Pajor↳ T. Pawollek

44'

V. Buurman

46'

L. Wilms← K. Casparij

47'

J. Roord↳ W. Kaptein

62'

C. Grant← E. Brugts

62'

J. Groenen← D. Egurrola

66'

W. Zawistowska← N. Krezyman

66'

M. Kokosz← T. Pawollek

71'

C. Dijkstra

74'

R. Leuchter← L. Beerensteyn

81'

J. Groenen

84'

P. Tomasiak↳ E. Kamczyk

90'

G. Grzybowska← E. Kamczyk

90+3'

N. Padilla← P. Tomasiak

Poland

Netherlands

1

Kop

18

▼

Casparij

3

Dijkstra

20

Janssen

4

⚽

Buurman

21

▼

Egurrola

9

Miedema

8

A

Kaptein

10

⚽

Roord

7

▼

Beerenste

11

▼

1

3

5

4

2

23

8

A

▼

Kamczyk

11

A

▼

Pawollek

18

▼

Krezyman

9

⚽

Pajor

21

⚽

▼

Tomasiak

Manager: Nina Patalon

66'▲W. Zawistowska←▼N. Krezyman

66'▲M. Kokosz←▼T. Pawollek

90'▲G. Grzybowska←▼E. Kamczyk

90+3'▲N. Padilla←▼P. Tomasiak

Poland W substitutes

12Radkiewicz22Szperkowska6Zaremba7Sarapata10Zawistowska13Szymczak14Cyraniak15Kokosz16Jedlinska17Grzybowska19Padilla20Arasniewicz

Manager: Andries Jonker

46'▲L. Wilms←▼K. Casparij

62'▲C. Grant←▼E. Brugts

62'▲J. Groenen←▼D. Egurrola

74'▲R. Leuchter←▼L. Beerensteyn

Netherlands W substitutes

16Domselaar23Jong2Wilms5Olislagers6Nijstad12Grant13Levels14Groenen15Peddemors17Pelova19Leuchter22Zanden