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Poland W vs Morocco W — Friendlies Women 2026

Poland W
Poland W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Morocco W
Morocco W
N. Karczewska 88', 59'
N. Padilla 53'
E. Pajor 36'
10/6/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Olímpico de Sevilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Poland W67%
×Draw20%
Morocco W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poland W
1.98
Morocco W
0.70

Poland W creates 183% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Poland W
2.18
Morocco W
0.31

allows per match

Poland W
1.09
Morocco W
1.77

finishing

Poland W+0.00on par
Morocco W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland W ↓

Morocco W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Poland W or draw
88%
Poland W or Morocco W
80%
Draw or Morocco W
33%

Winning margin

Poland W wins by 2+
42%
Morocco W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Poland W 1+ goals
86%
Poland W 2+ goals
59%
Poland W 3+ goals
31%
Morocco W 1+ goals
50%
Morocco W 2+ goals
16%
Morocco W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Poland W (draw refunded)
85%
Morocco W (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland W at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Morocco W away — creates 0.31, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland W attack 2.18 + Morocco W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.98

Morocco W attack 0.31 + Poland W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Poland W scores more
67%
level
20%
Morocco W scores more
12%

Poland W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Poland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
E. Pajor
53'
N. Padilla
59'
N. Karczewska
88'
N. Karczewska

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Poland W 4–0 Morocco W

Poland W beat Morocco W 4-0 in Friendlies Women on October 6, 2022.

Goals: E. Pajor (36'), N. Padilla (53'), N. Karczewska (59', 88').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Sevilla in Sevilla.