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Poland vs Türkiye — Friendlies 2026

Poland
Poland
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Türkiye
Türkiye
6/10/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stadion Narodowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Poland53%
×Draw24%
Türkiye23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poland
1.75
Türkiye
1.08

Poland creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

creates per match

Poland
1.82
Türkiye
1.17

allows per match

Poland
1.00
Türkiye
1.67

finishing

Poland+0.00on par
Türkiye+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Türkiye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Poland or draw
77%
Poland or Türkiye
76%
Draw or Türkiye
47%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+
29%
Türkiye wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals
83%
Poland 2+ goals
52%
Poland 3+ goals
25%
Türkiye 1+ goals
66%
Türkiye 2+ goals
29%
Türkiye 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)
69%
Türkiye (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Türkiye away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 1.82 + Türkiye defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Türkiye attack 1.17 + Poland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Poland scores more
53%
level
24%
Türkiye scores more
23%

Poland at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poland vs Türkiye

Poland beat Türkiye 2-1 in Friendlies on June 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Narodowy in Warszawa.