Poland 1–2 Senegal: Result & Stats | World Cup

Poland

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Senegal

G. Krychowiak 86'

M. Niang 60'

T. Cionek 37' (OG)

6/19/2018

World Cup · Group Stage - 1Otkrytiye Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Poland31%

×Draw23%

Senegal46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PolandExpected goals in this matchSenegal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.73

Poland

1.38

Senegal

1.73

Senegal creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.75

creates per match

1.71

1.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Poland

0.75

Senegal

1.71

allows per match

Poland

1.75

Senegal

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland+0.00on par

Senegal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Senegal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Poland or draw

54%

Poland or Senegal

77%

Draw or Senegal

69%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+

14%

Senegal wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals

75%

Poland 2+ goals

40%

Poland 3+ goals

16%

Senegal 1+ goals

82%

Senegal 2+ goals

52%

Senegal 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)

40%

Senegal (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Senegal away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 0.75 + Senegal defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Senegal attack 1.71 + Poland defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Poland scores more

31%

level

23%

Senegal scores more

46%

Senegal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Senegal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Niang

Senegal · F

7.6

Match Events

12'

Grzegorz Krychowiak

37'

T. CionekOwn goal

46'

J. Bednarek← J. Błaszczykowski

49'

60'

62'

72'

73'

D. Kownacki← A. Milik

75'

M. Konaté← M. Niang

83'

B. Bereszyński← Ł. Piszczek

86'

G. Krychowiak↳ K. Grosicki

87'

C. Kouyaté← A. NDiaye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PolandSenegal

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots8

3Corners3

8Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots8

4On Target2

6Off Target4

1Blocked2

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

569Total Passes360

472Accurate Passes279

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2