Poland 2–0 Saudi Arabia: Result & Stats | World Cup

Poland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Saudi Arabia

R. Lewandowski 82'

P. Zieliński 39'

11/26/2022

World Cup · Group Stage - 2Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Poland47%

×Draw26%

Saudi Arabia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PolandExpected goals in this matchSaudi Arabia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.04

Poland

1.46

Saudi Arabia

1.04

Poland creates 40% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

0.75

creates per match

0.33

1.75

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Poland

0.75

Saudi Arabia

0.33

allows per match

Poland

1.75

Saudi Arabia

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland+0.00on par

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Saudi Arabia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Poland or draw

73%

Poland or Saudi Arabia

74%

Draw or Saudi Arabia

53%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+

23%

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals

77%

Poland 2+ goals

43%

Poland 3+ goals

18%

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals

65%

Saudi Arabia 2+ goals

28%

Saudi Arabia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)

63%

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Saudi Arabia away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 0.75 + Saudi Arabia defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Saudi Arabia attack 0.33 + Poland defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Poland scores more

47%

level

26%

Saudi Arabia scores more

27%

Poland at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

W. Szczęsny

Poland · G

8.3

Match Events

15'

16'

19'

20'

39'

P. Zieliński↳ R. Lewandowski

44'

Saleh Al-ShehriPenalty confirmed

45+4'

Abdulelah Al-Amri

46'

Nawaf Al Abid← Sami Al Naji

63'

J. Kamiński← P. Zieliński

65'

Sultan Al Ghannam← Mohammed Al Burayk

71'

K. Piątek← A. Milik

82'

R. Lewandowski

85'

Abdulrahman Al Obud← Abdulelah Al Malki

86'

Nasser Al Dawsari← Saleh Al Shehri

90+5'

Hattan Bahbri← Nawaf Al Abid

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PolandSaudi

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots16

4Corners5

18Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots16

3On Target5

4Off Target8

2Blocked3

9Inside Box9

0Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

297Total Passes537

228Accurate Passes456

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2