Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Poland vs Russia — Friendlies 2026

Poland
Poland
CANC
18:45
Russia
Russia
6/2/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stadion Narodowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Poland37%
×Draw27%
Russia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poland
1.27
Russia
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

Poland
1.82
Russia
1.53

allows per match

Poland
1.00
Russia
0.73

finishing

Poland+0.00on par
Russia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Russia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Poland or draw
63%
Poland or Russia
73%
Draw or Russia
63%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+
16%
Russia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals
72%
Poland 2+ goals
36%
Poland 3+ goals
14%
Russia 1+ goals
72%
Russia 2+ goals
36%
Russia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)
50%
Russia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Russia away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 1.82 + Russia defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Russia attack 1.53 + Poland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Poland scores more
37%
level
27%
Russia scores more
37%

Poland at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Poland host Russia

June 2, 2020: Poland take on Russia in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Poland host Russia at Stadion Narodowy.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.