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Poland vs Rep. Of Ireland — Friendlies 2026

Poland
Poland
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rep. Of Ireland
Rep. Of Ireland
M. Klich 87'
A. O'Brien 53'
9/11/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stadion Śląska Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Poland52%
×Draw26%
Rep. Of Ireland22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poland
1.50
Rep. Of Ireland
0.86

Poland creates 74% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Poland
1.82
Rep. Of Ireland
0.73

allows per match

Poland
1.00
Rep. Of Ireland
1.18

finishing

Poland+0.00on par
Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Poland or draw
78%
Poland or Rep. Of Ireland
74%
Draw or Rep. Of Ireland
48%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+
27%
Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals
78%
Poland 2+ goals
44%
Poland 3+ goals
19%
Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals
58%
Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals
21%
Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)
71%
Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 1.82 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.73 + Poland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Poland scores more
52%
level
26%
Rep. Of Ireland scores more
22%

Poland at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
D. Kądzior← R. Kurzawa
53'
A. O'Brien↳ C. O'Dowda
54'
D. Meyler← J. Hendrick
54'
M. Doherty← C. Christie
61'
J. Bednarek← K. Glik
61'
M. Klich← K. Piątek
63'
G. Burke← C. Robinson
72'
R. Pietrzak← A. Reca
73'
D. Szymański← G. Krychowiak
73'
C. Hourihane← S. Williams
81'
P. Frankowski← J. Błaszczykowski
81'
D. Horgan← A. OBrien
87'
M. Klich↳ A. Milik
90'
A. Judge← C. ODowda

Possession

59%Poland

Shots

11Poland

Statistics

PolandRep.
Overview
59%Possession41%
11Total Shots5
4Corners3
10Fouls5
Shots
11Total Shots5
5On Target2
6Off Target3
Passing
59%Possession41%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls5
0Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Friendlies: Poland 1–1 Rep. Of Ireland

Poland and Rep. Of Ireland drew 1-1 in Friendlies on September 11, 2018.

Goals: A. O'Brien (53'), M. Klich (87').

Poland controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadion Śląska Wrocław in Wroclaw.