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Poland vs Finland — Friendlies 2026

Poland
Poland
CANC
00:00
Finland
Finland
3/27/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Poland62%
×Draw21%
Finland17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poland
2.02
Finland
0.96

Poland creates 110% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Poland
1.82
Finland
0.92

allows per match

Poland
1.00
Finland
2.23

finishing

Poland+0.00on par
Finland+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Finland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Poland or draw
83%
Poland or Finland
79%
Draw or Finland
38%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+
38%
Finland wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals
87%
Poland 2+ goals
60%
Poland 3+ goals
33%
Finland 1+ goals
62%
Finland 2+ goals
25%
Finland 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)
78%
Finland (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Finland away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 1.82 + Finland defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.02

Finland attack 0.92 + Poland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Poland scores more
62%
level
21%
Finland scores more
17%

Poland at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Poland host Finland

March 27, 2020: Poland take on Finland in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Poland host Finland at Stadion Miejski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.