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Poland vs Czechia — Friendlies 2026

Poland
Poland
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Czechia
Czechia
J. Jankto 52'
11/15/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stadion Energa Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Poland59%
×Draw22%
Czechia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poland
1.86
Czechia
0.95

Poland creates 96% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Poland
1.82
Czechia
0.90

allows per match

Poland
1.00
Czechia
1.90

finishing

Poland+0.00on par
Czechia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Czechia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Poland or draw
81%
Poland or Czechia
78%
Draw or Czechia
41%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+
34%
Czechia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals
84%
Poland 2+ goals
55%
Poland 3+ goals
28%
Czechia 1+ goals
61%
Czechia 2+ goals
25%
Czechia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)
76%
Czechia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Czechia away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 1.82 + Czechia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.86

Czechia attack 0.90 + Poland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Poland scores more
59%
level
22%
Czechia scores more
19%

Poland at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
T. Kalas← J. Brabec
46'
V. Darida← T. Souček
52'
J. Jankto
63'
J. Błaszczykowski← P. Frankowski
66'
T. Gebre Selassie← M. Vydra
66'
J. Skalák← J. Jankto
69'
D. Kądzior← P. Zieliński
77'
M. Dolezal← P. Schick
78'
A. Milik← K. Grosicki
85'
Vladimír Darida
88'
M. Travnik← B. Dočkal

Shots

10Poland

Statistics

PolandCzechia
Overview
10Total Shots12
12Corners3
13Fouls17
Shots
10Total Shots12
7On Target5
3Off Target7
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls17
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Friendlies: Poland 0–1 Czechia

Czechia beat Poland 1-0 in Friendlies on November 15, 2018.

Goals: J. Jankto (52').

The match was played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk in Gdansk.