Poland 3–3 Croatia: Result & Stats

Poland

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Croatia

S. Szymański 68'

N. Zalewski 45'

P. Zieliński 5'

M. Baturina 26'

P. Sučić 24'

B. Sosa 19'

10/15/2024

UEFA Nations League · League A - 4Stadion Narodowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Poland44%

×Draw23%

Croatia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PolandExpected goals in this matchCroatia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.46

Poland

1.73

Croatia

1.46

Poland creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.18

creates per match

1.27

1.64

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Poland

1.18

Croatia

1.27

allows per match

Poland

1.64

Croatia

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland+0.00on par

Croatia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Croatia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Poland or draw

67%

Poland or Croatia

77%

Draw or Croatia

56%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+

23%

Croatia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals

82%

Poland 2+ goals

52%

Poland 3+ goals

25%

Croatia 1+ goals

77%

Croatia 2+ goals

43%

Croatia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)

57%

Croatia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Croatia away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 1.18 + Croatia defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.73

Croatia attack 1.27 + Poland defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Poland scores more

44%

level

23%

Croatia scores more

33%

Poland at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

P. Sučić

Croatia · M

8.6

Match Events

5'

P. Zieliński↳ K. Urbański

19'

B. Sosa

24'

P. Sučić↳ M. Baturina

26'

M. Baturina↳ P. Sučić

32'

Joško Gvardiol

38'

K. Piątkowski← P. Dawidowicz

45'

N. Zalewski

61'

A. Budimir← I. Matanović

62'

R. Lewandowski← K. Świderski

62'

M. Ameyaw← J. Kamiński

62'

M. Oyedele← J. Moder

68'

S. Szymański↳ R. Lewandowski

69'

M. Pašalić← A. Kramarić

70'

Piotr Zieliński

74'

B. Kapustka← P. Zieliński

76'

Dominik Livaković

78'

Martin Baturina

80'

L. Sučić← M. Baturina

81'

N. Labrović← M. Erlić

90+2'

Ante Budimir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PolandCroatia

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots15

2Corners3

14Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots15

6On Target8

6Off Target3

2Blocked4

7Inside Box8

7Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

419Total Passes480

358Accurate Passes413

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1