Poland U19 3–0 Turkey U19: Result & Stats

Poland U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Turkey U19

K. Borys 90+1' (pen)

D. Mikołajewski 78' (pen), 39'

10/15/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Poland U1951%

×Draw24%

Turkey U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U19Expected goals in this matchTurkey U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.07

Poland U19

1.67

Turkey U19

1.07

Poland U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

0.81

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Poland U19

2.00

Turkey U19

1.33

allows per match

Poland U19

0.81

Turkey U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U19+0.00on par

Turkey U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U19 ↓

Turkey U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Poland U19 or draw

76%

Poland U19 or Turkey U19

76%

Draw or Turkey U19

49%

Winning margin

Poland U19 wins by 2+

28%

Turkey U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Poland U19 1+ goals

81%

Poland U19 2+ goals

50%

Poland U19 3+ goals

23%

Turkey U19 1+ goals

66%

Turkey U19 2+ goals

29%

Turkey U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Turkey U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U19 attack 2.00 + Turkey U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Turkey U19 attack 1.33 + Poland U19 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Poland U19 scores more

51%

level

24%

Turkey U19 scores more

24%

Poland U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

H. Gureler

39'

D. Mikołajewski

49'

M. Sznaucner

60'

T. Aydin

63'

İ. Vural← D. Avcı

67'

K. Nowakowski← K. Kolanko

67'

S. Kądziołka← M. Sznaucner

76'

A. Usluoğlu← V. Yıldız

77'

B. Karaca

78'

D. MikołajewskiPenalty

82'

A. Rybak← D. Mikołajewski

82'

J. Krzyżanowski← K. Kurowski

87'

J. Dorożko← J. Faberski

89'

B. Yılmaz← T. Aydın

90+1'

K. BorysPenalty

Poland

Turkey

12

Çevikkan

2

Berkay

15

Güreler

5

▼

3

10

18

6

▼

Yıldız

20

▼

17

9

22

4

2

5

16

▼

Kurowski

20

Grzywacz

19

▼

Faberski

8

⚽

Borys

11

▼

Kolanko

6

▼

Sznaucner

10

⚽2

▼

Mikołajew

Manager: W. Kobeszko

67'▲K. Nowakowski←▼K. Kolanko

67'▲S. Kądziołka←▼M. Sznaucner

82'▲A. Rybak←▼D. Mikołajewski

82'▲J. Krzyżanowski←▼K. Kurowski

87'▲J. Dorożko←▼J. Faberski

Poland U19 substitutes

15Nowakowski21Kądziołka17Rybak3Krzyżanowski18Dorożko1Holewiński14Potulski9Paryzek

Manager: S. Sarıoğlu

63'▲İ. Vural←▼D. Avcı

76'▲A. Usluoğlu←▼V. Yıldız

89'▲B. Yılmaz←▼T. Aydın

Turkey U19 substitutes

16Vural7Usluoğlu8Yılmaz4Çetin19İngenç14Özkul1Yaşar11Kayaarası13Subaşı

Match Recap: Poland U19 vs Turkey U19

Poland U19 beat Turkey U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 15, 2024.

Goals: D. Mikołajewski (39', 78' pen), K. Borys (90+1' pen).

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.

Poland U19 vs Turkey U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Poland U19 vs Turkey U19