Poland U19 0–1 Portugal U19: Result & Stats

Poland U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Portugal U19

R. Rodrigues 60'

3/25/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Amelia Morais

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Poland U1951%

×Draw27%

Portugal U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U19Expected goals in this matchPortugal U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.83

Poland U19

1.43

Portugal U19

0.83

Poland U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

0.86

0.81

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Poland U19

2.00

Portugal U19

0.86

allows per match

Poland U19

0.81

Portugal U19

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U19+0.00on par

Portugal U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U19 ↓

Portugal U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Poland U19 or draw

78%

Poland U19 or Portugal U19

73%

Draw or Portugal U19

49%

Winning margin

Poland U19 wins by 2+

25%

Portugal U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Poland U19 1+ goals

76%

Poland U19 2+ goals

42%

Poland U19 3+ goals

17%

Portugal U19 1+ goals

56%

Portugal U19 2+ goals

20%

Portugal U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Portugal U19 away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U19 attack 2.00 + Portugal U19 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Portugal U19 attack 0.86 + Poland U19 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Poland U19 scores more

51%

level

27%

Portugal U19 scores more

22%

Poland U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

K. Ciszek

59'

Anisio← G. Silva

59'

R. Rodrigues← M. Mide

60'

S. Gieroba← M. Pawlowski

60'

61'

65'

67'

68'

M. Szczepaniak← K. Nowogonski

68'

J. Adkonis← F. Bzdyl

71'

M. Figueiredo← F. Goncalves

80'

M. Smoczynski← A. Przyborek

80'

R. Quintas← B. Lima

80'

J. Trovisco← S. Vidigal

85'

J. Adkonis

89'

J. Adkonis

89'

J. Adkonis

Poland

Portugal

1

2

13

15

3

4

▼

Lima

6

Felicissi

20

▼

Mide

7

▼

Vidigal

9

▼

Silva

10

▼

1

2

3

6

4

17

▼

Nowogonsk

8

Sarapata

11

▼

Bzdyl

15

▼

Ciszek

14

▼

Przyborek

19

▼

Pawlowski

Manager: W. Kobeszko

60'▲S. Gieroba←▼M. Pawlowski

61'▲J. Zbrog←▼K. Ciszek

68'▲M. Szczepaniak←▼K. Nowogonski

68'▲J. Adkonis←▼F. Bzdyl

80'▲M. Smoczynski←▼A. Przyborek

Poland U19 substitutes

12Perchel5Falowski7Szczepaniak9Gieroba10Adkonis20Dziewiatowski21Zbrog23Smoczynski

Manager: Filipe Ramos

59'▲Anisio←▼G. Silva

59'▲R. Rodrigues←▼M. Mide

71'▲M. Figueiredo←▼F. Goncalves

80'▲R. Quintas←▼B. Lima

80'▲J. Trovisco←▼S. Vidigal

Portugal U19 substitutes

12Silva5Quintas8Figueiredo11Anisio14Soares16Sousa17Rodrigues18Patrao19Trovisco