Poland U19 0–1 Montenegro U19: Result & Stats

Poland U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Montenegro U19

V. Adžić 45'

3/22/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3David Petriashvili Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Poland U1957%

×Draw24%

Montenegro U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U19Expected goals in this matchMontenegro U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.91

Poland U19

1.73

Montenegro U19

0.91

Poland U19 creates 90% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.81

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Poland U19

2.00

Montenegro U19

1.00

allows per match

Poland U19

0.81

Montenegro U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U19+0.00on par

Montenegro U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U19 ↓

Montenegro U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Poland U19 or draw

80%

Poland U19 or Montenegro U19

76%

Draw or Montenegro U19

43%

Winning margin

Poland U19 wins by 2+

32%

Montenegro U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Poland U19 1+ goals

82%

Poland U19 2+ goals

52%

Poland U19 3+ goals

25%

Montenegro U19 1+ goals

60%

Montenegro U19 2+ goals

23%

Montenegro U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Montenegro U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Montenegro U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U19 attack 2.00 + Montenegro U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Montenegro U19 attack 1.00 + Poland U19 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Poland U19 scores more

57%

level

24%

Montenegro U19 scores more

20%

Poland U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Karadžić← Z. Kumburović

45+1'

O. Milovic

45'

V. Adžić

51'

D. Mikolajewski

54'

A. Karadzic

60'

V. Adzic

61'

A. Kostić← M. Tadić

65'

L. Maras

66'

K. Kolanko← F. Rózga

66'

J. Adkonis← B. Barański

75'

M. Perovic

80'

E. Grzywacz

82'

V. Vlahović← L. Maraš

83'

A. Rybak← D. Mikołajewski

83'

K. Nowakowski← E. Grzywacz

83'

M. Reguła← J. Faberski

86'

V. Vlahovic

Poland

Montenegro

1

Milović

2

Vračar

5

Tomašević

4

▼

Kumburovi

3

▼

Maraš

7

Perović

10

⚽

17

11

8

9

▼

22

4

2

5

14

18

▼

Grzywacz

19

▼

Faberski

21

▼

Barański

6

Sznaucner

7

▼

Rózga

10

▼

Mikołajew

Manager: W. Kobeszko

66'▲K. Kolanko←▼F. Rózga

66'▲J. Adkonis←▼B. Barański

83'▲A. Rybak←▼D. Mikołajewski

83'▲K. Nowakowski←▼E. Grzywacz

83'▲M. Reguła←▼J. Faberski

Poland U19 substitutes

11Kolanko20Adkonis9Rybak15Nowakowski16Reguła1Holewiński13Kurowski3Szkliński23Mońka

Manager: N. Vukčević

9'▲A. Karadžić←▼Z. Kumburović

61'▲A. Kostić←▼M. Tadić

82'▲V. Vlahović←▼L. Maraš

Montenegro U19 substitutes

6Karadžić21Kostić20Vlahović16Ćetković22Šekularac15Đukić18Đukanović12Đurović19Perović

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Poland U19 0–1 Montenegro U19

Montenegro U19 beat Poland U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 22, 2025.

Goals: V. Adžić (45').

The match was played at David Petriashvili Arena in Tbilisi.

Poland U19 vs Montenegro U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Poland U19 0–1 Montenegro U19