Poland U19 3–0 Latvia U19: Result & Stats

Poland U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Latvia U19

K. Urbański 86', 49'

T. Pieńko 78'

3/25/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Baza treningowa KS Cracovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Poland U1960%

×Draw22%

Latvia U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U19Expected goals in this matchLatvia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.88

Poland U19

1.84

Latvia U19

0.88

Poland U19 creates 109% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

2.00

creates per match

0.95

0.81

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Poland U19

2.00

Latvia U19

0.95

allows per match

Poland U19

0.81

Latvia U19

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U19+0.00on par

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U19 ↓

Latvia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Poland U19 or draw

82%

Poland U19 or Latvia U19

78%

Draw or Latvia U19

40%

Winning margin

Poland U19 wins by 2+

35%

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Poland U19 1+ goals

84%

Poland U19 2+ goals

55%

Poland U19 3+ goals

28%

Latvia U19 1+ goals

59%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

22%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Latvia U19 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U19 attack 2.00 + Latvia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.84

Latvia U19 attack 0.95 + Poland U19 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Poland U19 scores more

60%

level

22%

Latvia U19 scores more

18%

Poland U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

G. Zaleiko

46'

G. Degtjarevs← R. Gaučis

49'

K. Urbański

66'

J. Lewicki← M. Brzozowski

66'

S. Mucha← J. Majchrzak

66'

I. Patrikejevs← E. Aizpurietis

69'

I. Drapinski

77'

A. Muradjans← D. Sirbu

77'

K. Volkovs← K. Krieviņš

78'

T. Pieńko

83'

D. Susko

85'

D. Biniek← I. Strzałek

86'

89'

89'

90+3'

90+3'

90+1'

A. da Graça Marques← T. Pieńko

90+1'

L. Pitan← M. Oyedele

Poland

Latvia

1

2

21

13

6

18

▼

Krieviņš

16

▼

Aizpuriet

7

Žaleiko

11

▼

Sirbu

10

Lizunovs

19

▼

Gaučis

1

Zych

4

Matysik

11

▼

7

2

16

10

⚽2

Urbański

14

▼

Oyedele

21

⚽

▼

Pieńko

20

▼

Strzałek

19

▼

Majchrzak

Manager: M. Brosz

66'▲J. Lewicki←▼M. Brzozowski

66'▲S. Mucha←▼J. Majchrzak

85'▲D. Biniek←▼I. Strzałek

90+1'▲A. da Graça Marques←▼T. Pieńko

90+1'▲L. Pitan←▼M. Oyedele

Poland U19 substitutes

3Lewicki18Mucha17Biniek13Marques9Pitan12Bobek

Manager: J. Dovalils

46'▲G. Degtjarevs←▼R. Gaučis

66'▲I. Patrikejevs←▼E. Aizpurietis

77'▲A. Muradjans←▼D. Sirbu

77'▲K. Volkovs←▼K. Krieviņš

Latvia U19 substitutes

9Degtjarevs15Patrikejevs14Muradjans17Volkovs4Kačanovs20Patika23Lauva8Alpēns5Semeško

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Poland U19 3–0 Latvia U19

Poland U19 beat Latvia U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2023.

Goals: K. Urbański (49', 86'), T. Pieńko (78').

The match was played at Baza treningowa KS Cracovia in Rączna.

Poland U19 vs Latvia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Poland U19 3–0 Latvia U19