Poland U19 4–0 Gibraltar U19: Result & Stats

Poland U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Gibraltar U19

P. Paryzek 77'

S. Kądziołka 53'

K. Nowakowski 33'

D. Szala 10'

10/12/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Poland U1995%

×Draw4%

Gibraltar U191%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U19Expected goals in this matchGibraltar U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.21

0.41

Poland U19

4.21

Gibraltar U19

0.41

Poland U19 creates 927% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

0.00

0.81

allows per match

6.42

creates per match

Poland U19

2.00

Gibraltar U19

0.00

allows per match

Poland U19

0.81

Gibraltar U19

6.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U19+0.00on par

Gibraltar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U19 ↓

Gibraltar U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–12%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–015%

4–16%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (15%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Poland U19 or draw

99%

Poland U19 or Gibraltar U19

96%

Draw or Gibraltar U19

5%

Winning margin

Poland U19 wins by 2+

84%

Gibraltar U19 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Poland U19 1+ goals

98%

Poland U19 2+ goals

91%

Poland U19 3+ goals

76%

Gibraltar U19 1+ goals

34%

Gibraltar U19 2+ goals

6%

Gibraltar U19 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

99%

Gibraltar U19 (draw refunded)

1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Gibraltar U19 away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U19 attack 2.00 + Gibraltar U19 defence 6.42 → ÷2 → 4.21

Gibraltar U19 attack 0.00 + Poland U19 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Poland U19 scores more

95%

level

4%

Gibraltar U19 scores more

1%

Poland U19 at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. Szala

33'

K. Nowakowski

46'

L. Mason← J. Martinez

53'

S. Kądziołka

61'

J. Paul Stevens← K. Gonzalez

66'

D. Mikołajewski← J. Faberski

66'

E. Grzywacz← M. Sznaucner

66'

K. Borys← S. Kądziołka

66'

P. Paryzek← A. Rybak

71'

A. Hancock← J. Peacock

71'

J. Garro← K. Smith

75'

I. Orlikowski← D. Szala

76'

J. Garro

77'

P. Paryzek

79'

K. Buckley← T. Holden

84'

A. Hancock

Poland

Gibraltar

13

3

2

5

16

8

7

▼

Peacock

12

▼

Smith

19

▼

Holden

18

▼

Gonzalez

9

▼

Martinez

1

Holewińsk

2

⚽

▼

Szala

3

Krzyżanow

14

Potulski

15

⚽

Nowakowsk

19

▼

Faberski

11

Kolanko

6

▼

Sznaucner

21

⚽

▼

Kądziołka

18

Dorożko

17

▼

Rybak

Manager: W. Kobeszko

66'▲D. Mikołajewski←▼J. Faberski

66'▲E. Grzywacz←▼M. Sznaucner

66'▲K. Borys←▼S. Kądziołka

66'▲P. Paryzek←▼A. Rybak

75'▲I. Orlikowski←▼D. Szala

Poland U19 substitutes

10Mikołajewski20Grzywacz8Borys9Paryzek4Orlikowski16Kurowski5Gurgul22Piekutowski

Manager: S. Wiseman

46'▲L. Mason←▼J. Martinez

61'▲J. Paul Stevens←▼K. Gonzalez

71'▲A. Hancock←▼J. Peacock

71'▲J. Garro←▼K. Smith

79'▲K. Buckley←▼T. Holden

Gibraltar U19 substitutes

10Mason4Stevens17Hancock14Garro20Buckley15Achhoud11Avellano1Charvetto6Barden

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Poland U19 4–0 Gibraltar U19

Poland U19 beat Gibraltar U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 12, 2024.

Goals: D. Szala (10'), K. Nowakowski (33'), S. Kądziołka (53'), P. Paryzek (77').

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.

Poland U19 vs Gibraltar U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Poland U19 4–0 Gibraltar U19