Poland U19 3–3 Germany U19: Result & Stats

Poland U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Germany U19

D. Drachal 78', 24'

J. Nsangou 14' (pen)

D. Pejčinović 83', 59'

M. Krattenmacher 22'

10/17/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Poland U1939%

×Draw24%

Germany U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U19Expected goals in this matchGermany U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.54

Poland U19

1.59

Germany U19

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

2.00

creates per match

2.27

0.81

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Poland U19

2.00

Germany U19

2.27

allows per match

Poland U19

0.81

Germany U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U19+0.00on par

Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U19 ↓

Germany U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Poland U19 or draw

63%

Poland U19 or Germany U19

76%

Draw or Germany U19

61%

Winning margin

Poland U19 wins by 2+

19%

Germany U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Poland U19 1+ goals

80%

Poland U19 2+ goals

47%

Poland U19 3+ goals

21%

Germany U19 1+ goals

79%

Germany U19 2+ goals

45%

Germany U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U19 attack 2.00 + Germany U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Germany U19 attack 2.27 + Poland U19 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Poland U19 scores more

39%

level

24%

Germany U19 scores more

37%

Poland U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

J. NsangouPenalty

17'

22'

24'

35'

59'

62'

D. Stalmach← M. Rosiak

62'

K. Terlecki← M. Dziuba

71'

M. Kowalski← K. Śmiglewski

78'

D. Drachal

79'

M. Kömür← M. Krattenmacher

83'

D. Pejčinović

85'

K. Suso← L. Marino

89'

S. Bartlewicz← N. Barczak

90+3'

S. Suso

90+4'

E. Baum

90+6'

S. Bartlewicz

90'

T. Guercio← J. Nsangou

Poland

Germany

1

15

17

2

14

20

10

9

⚽

▼

Krattenma

19

▼

Marino

4

Bornschei

18

⚽2

Pejčinovi

12

Mendes-Du

4

Tomaszews

6

▼

5

3

7

16

⚽

▼

Nsangou

15

▼

Dziuba

10

⚽2

Drachal

2

▼

Barczak

21

▼

Śmiglewsk

Manager: W. Kobeszko

62'▲D. Stalmach←▼M. Rosiak

62'▲K. Terlecki←▼M. Dziuba

71'▲M. Kowalski←▼K. Śmiglewski

89'▲S. Bartlewicz←▼N. Barczak

90'▲T. Guercio←▼J. Nsangou

Poland U19 substitutes

8Stalmach17Terlecki9Kowalski20Bartlewicz23Guercio1Mikułko19Luberecki18Ziółkowski

Manager: C. Wörns

79'▲M. Kömür←▼M. Krattenmacher

85'▲K. Suso←▼L. Marino

Germany U19 substitutes

8Kömür13Suso7Opitz6Grüger3Wagner5Münz16Benedetto11Becker12Podlech

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Poland U19 3–3 Germany U19

Poland U19 and Germany U19 drew 3-3 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 17, 2023.

Goals: J. Nsangou (14' pen), M. Krattenmacher (22'), D. Drachal (24', 78'), D. Pejčinović (59', 83').

The match was played at Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka in Bydgoszcz.

Poland U19 vs Germany U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Poland U19 3–3 Germany U19