Poland U19 3–0 Georgia U19: Result & Stats

Poland U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Georgia U19

D. Mikołajewski 54' (pen)

M. Sznaucner 50'

M. Gurgul 17'

3/19/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Mikheil Meskhi 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Poland U1965%

×Draw20%

Georgia U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U19Expected goals in this matchGeorgia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.94

Poland U19

2.15

Georgia U19

0.94

Poland U19 creates 129% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

1.07

0.81

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Poland U19

2.00

Georgia U19

1.07

allows per match

Poland U19

0.81

Georgia U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U19+0.00on par

Georgia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U19 ↓

Georgia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Poland U19 or draw

85%

Poland U19 or Georgia U19

80%

Draw or Georgia U19

35%

Winning margin

Poland U19 wins by 2+

41%

Georgia U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Poland U19 1+ goals

88%

Poland U19 2+ goals

63%

Poland U19 3+ goals

36%

Georgia U19 1+ goals

61%

Georgia U19 2+ goals

24%

Georgia U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Georgia U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Georgia U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U19 attack 2.00 + Georgia U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.15

Georgia U19 attack 1.07 + Poland U19 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Poland U19 scores more

65%

level

20%

Georgia U19 scores more

15%

Poland U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

15'

17'

29'

39'

46'

L. Tsulaia← A. Amisulashvili

50'

M. Sznaucner

53'

M. Sauri

54'

D. MikołajewskiPenalty

59'

J. Adkonis← E. Grzywacz

59'

W. Mońka← I. Orlikowski

61'

N. Chikovani← S. Geguchadze

64'

M. Reguła← M. Sznaucner

71'

G. Gvasalia

72'

T. Odikadze← S. Samushia

74'

G. Meparishvili

78'

A. Rybak← D. Mikołajewski

78'

S. Szkliński← D. Szala

84'

J. FaberskiMissed penalty

88'

F. Rozga

Poland

Georgia

1

Sauri

5

Nikolaish

3

Meparishv

17

▼

15

4

20

6

7

▼

Geguchadz

8

Berelidze

10

▼

Samushia

22

Piekutows

4

▼

Orlikowsk

2

▼

Szala

5

⚽

Gurgul

14

Potulski

18

▼

Grzywacz

19

Faberski

6

⚽

▼

Sznaucner

7

Rózga

15

Nowakowsk

10

⚽

▼

Mikołajew

Manager: W. Kobeszko

59'▲J. Adkonis←▼E. Grzywacz

59'▲W. Mońka←▼I. Orlikowski

64'▲M. Reguła←▼M. Sznaucner

78'▲A. Rybak←▼D. Mikołajewski

78'▲S. Szkliński←▼D. Szala

Poland U19 substitutes

20Adkonis23Mońka16Reguła9Rybak3Szkliński1Holewiński21Barański11Kolanko13Kurowski

Manager: L. Pirtskhalaishvili

46'▲L. Tsulaia←▼A. Amisulashvili

61'▲N. Chikovani←▼S. Geguchadze

72'▲T. Odikadze←▼S. Samushia

Georgia U19 substitutes

13Tsulaia19Chikovani14Odikadze16Tkeshelashvili2Gogsadze11Bubuteishvili12Khelashvili18Natchkebia

Match Recap: Poland U19 vs Georgia U19

Poland U19 beat Georgia U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 19, 2025.

Goals: M. Gurgul (17'), M. Sznaucner (50'), D. Mikołajewski (54' pen).

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhi 2 in Tbilisi.

Poland U19 vs Georgia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Poland U19 vs Georgia U19