Poland U19 2–0 Estonia U19: Result & Stats

Poland U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estonia U19

T. Pieńko 68', 65' (pen)

9/24/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Poland U1966%

×Draw21%

Estonia U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U19Expected goals in this matchEstonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.73

Poland U19

1.96

Estonia U19

0.73

Poland U19 creates 168% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

0.64

0.81

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Poland U19

2.00

Estonia U19

0.64

allows per match

Poland U19

0.81

Estonia U19

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U19+0.00on par

Estonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U19 ↓

Estonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Poland U19 or draw

87%

Poland U19 or Estonia U19

79%

Draw or Estonia U19

34%

Winning margin

Poland U19 wins by 2+

41%

Estonia U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Poland U19 1+ goals

86%

Poland U19 2+ goals

58%

Poland U19 3+ goals

31%

Estonia U19 1+ goals

52%

Estonia U19 2+ goals

17%

Estonia U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Estonia U19 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U19 attack 2.00 + Estonia U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

Estonia U19 attack 0.64 + Poland U19 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Poland U19 scores more

66%

level

21%

Estonia U19 scores more

13%

Poland U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

D. Luts

46'

G. Chmiel← J. Antczak

46'

K. Urbański← M. Kowalczyk

46'

T. Pieńko← S. Mucha

46'

A. Švedovski← D. Luts

46'

E. Õunapuu← K. Eerme

56'

R. Sillamaa

58'

I. Drapinski

65'

N. Kondratski← R. Sillamaa

65'

T. PieńkoPenalty

68'

T. Pieńko

75'

G. Lehtmets← M. Orlov

79'

J. Kolan← D. Bugaj

87'

N. Kondratski

88'

M. Kurowski← M. Brzozowski

Poland

Estonia

12

5

14

2

8

3

13

▼

Sillamaa

19

▼

Orlov

20

Sakarias

7

▼

Luts

18

▼

1

14

6

23

▼

Brzozowsk

7

▼

3

16

8

11

▼

Antczak

15

▼

Kowalczyk

18

▼

Mucha

Manager: M. Brosz

46'▲G. Chmiel←▼J. Antczak

46'▲K. Urbański←▼M. Kowalczyk

46'▲T. Pieńko←▼S. Mucha

79'▲J. Kolan←▼D. Bugaj

88'▲M. Kurowski←▼M. Brzozowski

Poland U19 substitutes

9Chmiel10Urbański21Pieńko2Kolan19Kurowski20Duda4Matysik22Abramowicz17Guercio

Manager: A. Bärengrub

46'▲A. Švedovski←▼D. Luts

46'▲E. Õunapuu←▼K. Eerme

65'▲N. Kondratski←▼R. Sillamaa

75'▲G. Lehtmets←▼M. Orlov

Estonia U19 substitutes

11Švedovski9Õunapuu17Kondratski10Lehtmets4Bergman1Hendrikson15Otti6Ernits16Tiigiste

Match Recap: Poland U19 vs Estonia U19

Poland U19 beat Estonia U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 24, 2022.

Goals: T. Pieńko (65' pen, 68').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gdynia.

Poland U19 vs Estonia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Poland U19 vs Estonia U19