Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Poland U18 vs Denmark U18 — Friendlies 2026

Poland U18
Poland U18
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Denmark U18
Denmark U18
11/16/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Poland U1850%
×Draw26%
Denmark U1824%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poland U18
1.55
Denmark U18
1.00

Poland U18 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Poland U18
2.00
Denmark U18
1.50

allows per match

Poland U18
0.50
Denmark U18
1.10

finishing

Poland U18+0.00on par
Denmark U18+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U18 ↓

Denmark U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Poland U18 or draw
76%
Poland U18 or Denmark U18
74%
Draw or Denmark U18
50%

Winning margin

Poland U18 wins by 2+
26%
Denmark U18 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Poland U18 1+ goals
79%
Poland U18 2+ goals
46%
Poland U18 3+ goals
20%
Denmark U18 1+ goals
63%
Denmark U18 2+ goals
26%
Denmark U18 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Poland U18 (draw refunded)
67%
Denmark U18 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U18 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Denmark U18 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U18 attack 2.00 + Denmark U18 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Denmark U18 attack 1.50 + Poland U18 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Poland U18 scores more
50%
level
26%
Denmark U18 scores more
24%

Poland U18 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Poland U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Poland U18 4–1 Denmark U18

Poland U18 beat Denmark U18 4-1 in Friendlies on November 16, 2025.