Poland U17 3–2 Serbia U17: Result & Stats

Poland U17

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Serbia U17

F. Rejczyk 89'

D. Mikołajewski 62' (pen)

J. Krzyżanowski 4'

A. Subotić 70'

V. Vukojević 51'

5/27/2023

UEFA U17 Championship · Quarter-finalsGloball Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Poland U1750%

×Draw19%

Serbia U1731%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U17Expected goals in this matchSerbia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.97

Poland U17

2.53

Serbia U17

1.97

Poland U17 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

3.20

creates per match

2.14

1.80

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Poland U17

3.20

Serbia U17

2.14

allows per match

Poland U17

1.80

Serbia U17

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U17+0.00on par

Serbia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U17 ↓

Serbia U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Poland U17 or draw

69%

Poland U17 or Serbia U17

81%

Draw or Serbia U17

50%

Winning margin

Poland U17 wins by 2+

31%

Serbia U17 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Poland U17 1+ goals

92%

Poland U17 2+ goals

71%

Poland U17 3+ goals

46%

Serbia U17 1+ goals

86%

Serbia U17 2+ goals

58%

Serbia U17 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Poland U17 (draw refunded)

62%

Serbia U17 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U17 at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Serbia U17 away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U17 attack 3.20 + Serbia U17 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.53

Serbia U17 attack 2.14 + Poland U17 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Poland U17 scores more

50%

level

19%

Serbia U17 scores more

31%

Poland U17 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Poland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. Krzyżanowski

51'

V. Vukojević

54'

D. Mikołajewski← M. Huras

62'

D. MikołajewskiPenalty

64'

A. Subotić← U. Ćuk

64'

N. Delibašić← Z. Alilović

70'

A. Subotić↳ N. Delibašić

71'

I. Brzyski← K. Borys

77'

O. Tomczyk← M. Sznaucner

77'

M. Gurgul← F. Wolski

79'

V. Vukojevic

80'

N. Simic

89'

F. Rejczyk

90'

U. Sremčević← D. Đurić

Poland

Serbia

23

Džodić

3

▼

4

5

8

21

⚽

Vukojević

10

Maksimovi

2

▼

Ćuk

18

▼

7

11

22

4

2

3

⚽

Krzyżanow

8

▼

Borys

7

▼

Wolski

11

Kolanko

20

⚽

Rejczyk

6

▼

Sznaucner

17

▼

Huras

14

Skoczylas

Manager: M. Włodarski

54'▲D. Mikołajewski←▼M. Huras

71'▲I. Brzyski←▼K. Borys

77'▲O. Tomczyk←▼M. Sznaucner

77'▲M. Gurgul←▼F. Wolski

Poland U17 substitutes

10Mikołajewski19Brzyski9Tomczyk5Gurgul16Kurowski23Kowalik1Holewiński21Kądziołka15Adamczyk

Manager: Aleksandar Luković

64'▲A. Subotić←▼U. Ćuk

64'▲N. Delibašić←▼Z. Alilović

90'▲U. Sremčević←▼D. Đurić

Serbia U17 substitutes

20Subotić9Delibašić19Sremčević6Popović1Radulaški15Stojanović22Jocić13Avdić

Match Recap: Poland U17 vs Serbia U17

Poland U17 beat Serbia U17 3-2 in UEFA U17 Championship on May 27, 2023.

Goals: J. Krzyżanowski (4'), V. Vukojević (51'), D. Mikołajewski (62' pen), A. Subotić (70'), F. Rejczyk (89').

The match was played at Globall Football Park in Telki.

Poland U17 vs Serbia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Poland U17 vs Serbia U17