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Poland U17 vs Norway U17 — Friendlies 2018

Poland U17
Poland U17
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Norway U17
Norway U17
9/9/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poland U1756%
×Draw21%
Norway U1724%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poland U17
2.13
Norway U17
1.33

Poland U17 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Poland U17
2.60
Norway U17
1.67

allows per match

Poland U17
1.00
Norway U17
1.67

finishing

Poland U17+0.00on par
Norway U17+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U17 ↓

Norway U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Poland U17 or draw
76%
Poland U17 or Norway U17
79%
Draw or Norway U17
44%

Winning margin

Poland U17 wins by 2+
33%
Norway U17 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Poland U17 1+ goals
88%
Poland U17 2+ goals
63%
Poland U17 3+ goals
35%
Norway U17 1+ goals
74%
Norway U17 2+ goals
38%
Norway U17 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Poland U17 (draw refunded)
70%
Norway U17 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U17 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Norway U17 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U17 attack 2.60 + Norway U17 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Norway U17 attack 1.67 + Poland U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Poland U17 scores more
56%
level
21%
Norway U17 scores more
24%

Poland U17 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Poland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poland U17 vs Norway U17

Poland U17 beat Norway U17 4-2 in Friendlies on September 9, 2025.