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Poland U17 vs Moldova U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Poland U17
Poland U17
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Moldova U17
Moldova U17
9/30/2023UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Baza Zimbru 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Poland U1766%
×Draw19%
Moldova U1715%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poland U17
2.19
Moldova U17
0.93

Poland U17 creates 135% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Poland U17
2.50
Moldova U17
0.73

allows per match

Poland U17
1.13
Moldova U17
1.87

finishing

Poland U17+0.00on par
Moldova U17+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U17 ↓

Moldova U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Poland U17 or draw
85%
Poland U17 or Moldova U17
81%
Draw or Moldova U17
34%

Winning margin

Poland U17 wins by 2+
42%
Moldova U17 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Poland U17 1+ goals
89%
Poland U17 2+ goals
64%
Poland U17 3+ goals
37%
Moldova U17 1+ goals
61%
Moldova U17 2+ goals
24%
Moldova U17 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Poland U17 (draw refunded)
82%
Moldova U17 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U17 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Moldova U17 away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U17 attack 2.50 + Moldova U17 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.19

Moldova U17 attack 0.73 + Poland U17 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Poland U17 scores more
66%
level
19%
Moldova U17 scores more
15%

Poland U17 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Poland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poland U17 vs Moldova U17

Poland U17 beat Moldova U17 3-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Baza Zimbru 2 in Chişinău.