Poland U17 0–1 Belarus U17: Result & Stats

Poland U17

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Belarus U17

M. Bakhno 7'

3/23/2024

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Stadion Etno Selo Stanisići

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Poland U1754%

×Draw20%

Belarus U1725%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U17Expected goals in this matchBelarus U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.46

Poland U17

2.21

Belarus U17

1.46

Poland U17 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

2.50

creates per match

1.80

1.13

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Poland U17

2.50

Belarus U17

1.80

allows per match

Poland U17

1.13

Belarus U17

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U17+0.00on par

Belarus U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U17 ↓

Belarus U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Poland U17 or draw

75%

Poland U17 or Belarus U17

80%

Draw or Belarus U17

46%

Winning margin

Poland U17 wins by 2+

33%

Belarus U17 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Poland U17 1+ goals

89%

Poland U17 2+ goals

65%

Poland U17 3+ goals

38%

Belarus U17 1+ goals

77%

Belarus U17 2+ goals

43%

Belarus U17 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Poland U17 (draw refunded)

68%

Belarus U17 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U17 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Belarus U17 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U17 attack 2.50 + Belarus U17 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.21

Belarus U17 attack 1.80 + Poland U17 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Poland U17 scores more

54%

level

20%

Belarus U17 scores more

25%

Poland U17 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Poland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Bakhno

28'

A. Przyborek

46'

M. Szczepaniak← M. Izunwanne

46'

P. Mazur← D. Sarapata

46'

W. Mońka← B. Kriegler

53'

D. Ovsyannikov← V. Pulkach

57'

K. Jakóbczyk← D. Mazurek

65'

M. Dziewiatowski

65'

I. Gubarevich← A. Derzhinskiy

65'

P. Bezrukov← S. Zhivushko

69'

I. Brzyski← M. Dziewiatowski

78'

O. Pietuszewski

84'

H. Mishyn

90+8'

H. Serada

90+9'

D. Leantsiuk

90+11'

M. Matysiuk

90+3'

B. Gusev← I. Gubarevich

90+3'

G. Sereda← G. Mishin

Poland

Belarus

1

Matysyuk

2

Apetenok

22

Kazmerchu

3

⚽

18

17

4

14

▼

Zhivushko

13

▼

Mishin

19

▼

Derzhinsk

23

▼

Pulkach

1

Jeleń

13

▼

Izunwanne

5

Potulski

16

▼

Kriegler

17

▼

Mazurek

3

Szwiec

4

▼

Dziewiato

11

Przyborek

10

Adkonis

15

▼

Sarapata

9

Pietuszew

Manager: R. Lasocki

46'▲M. Szczepaniak←▼M. Izunwanne

46'▲P. Mazur←▼D. Sarapata

46'▲W. Mońka←▼B. Kriegler

57'▲K. Jakóbczyk←▼D. Mazurek

69'▲I. Brzyski←▼M. Dziewiatowski

Poland U17 substitutes

7Szczepaniak6Mazur20Mońka18Jakóbczyk19Brzyski8Popielec2Leszczyński22Pruchniewski14Wróblewski

Manager: D. Korotkevich

53'▲D. Ovsyannikov←▼V. Pulkach

65'▲I. Gubarevich←▼A. Derzhinskiy

65'▲P. Bezrukov←▼S. Zhivushko

90+3'▲B. Gusev←▼I. Gubarevich

90+3'▲G. Sereda←▼G. Mishin

Belarus U17 substitutes

10Ovsyannikov9Gubarevich8Bezrukov20Gusev6Sereda7Tkachev5Molchan