Poland U17 4–2 Austria U17: Result & Stats

Poland U17

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Austria U17

10/26/2022

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Poland U1762%

×Draw19%

Austria U1719%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U17Expected goals in this matchAustria U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.23

Poland U17

2.36

Austria U17

1.23

Poland U17 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

2.50

creates per match

1.33

1.13

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Poland U17

2.50

Austria U17

1.33

allows per match

Poland U17

1.13

Austria U17

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U17+0.00on par

Austria U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U17 ↓

Austria U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Poland U17 or draw

81%

Poland U17 or Austria U17

81%

Draw or Austria U17

38%

Winning margin

Poland U17 wins by 2+

40%

Austria U17 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Poland U17 1+ goals

90%

Poland U17 2+ goals

68%

Poland U17 3+ goals

41%

Austria U17 1+ goals

71%

Austria U17 2+ goals

35%

Austria U17 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Poland U17 (draw refunded)

77%

Austria U17 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U17 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Austria U17 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U17 attack 2.50 + Austria U17 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.36

Austria U17 attack 1.33 + Poland U17 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Poland U17 scores more

62%

level

19%

Austria U17 scores more

19%

Poland U17 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Poland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff