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Polaban Nymburk vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
FT
0 – 3
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
11/3/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 13Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polaban Nymburk38%
×Draw20%
Sokol Libiš42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polaban Nymburk
2.12
Sokol Libiš
2.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 26 away

creates per match

Polaban Nymburk
1.20
Sokol Libiš
1.12

allows per match

Polaban Nymburk
3.30
Sokol Libiš
3.04

finishing

Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polaban Nymburk ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Polaban Nymburk or draw
58%
Polaban Nymburk or Sokol Libiš
80%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
62%

Winning margin

Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
21%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
88%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
62%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
35%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
89%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
65%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
48%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polaban Nymburk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polaban Nymburk attack 1.20 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.12

Sokol Libiš attack 1.12 + Polaban Nymburk defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Polaban Nymburk scores more
38%
level
20%
Sokol Libiš scores more
42%

Sokol Libiš at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sokol Libiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Polaban Nymburk 0–3 Sokol Libiš

Sokol Libiš beat Polaban Nymburk 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk).