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Polaban Nymburk vs Náchod — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
FT
3 – 2
Náchod
Náchod
8/30/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 2Fotbalový štadión Polaban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polaban Nymburk27%
×Draw20%
Náchod53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polaban Nymburk
1.59
Náchod
2.28

Náchod creates 43% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 54 away

creates per match

Polaban Nymburk
1.20
Náchod
1.26

allows per match

Polaban Nymburk
3.30
Náchod
1.98

finishing

Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par
Náchod+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polaban Nymburk ↓

Náchod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Polaban Nymburk or draw
47%
Polaban Nymburk or Náchod
80%
Draw or Náchod
73%

Winning margin

Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
12%
Náchod wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
80%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
47%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
21%
Náchod 1+ goals
90%
Náchod 2+ goals
66%
Náchod 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
34%
Náchod (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polaban Nymburk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

Náchod away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polaban Nymburk attack 1.20 + Náchod defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.59

Náchod attack 1.26 + Polaban Nymburk defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Polaban Nymburk scores more
27%
level
20%
Náchod scores more
53%

Náchod at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Náchod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polaban Nymburk vs Náchod

Polaban Nymburk beat Náchod 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Fotbalový štadión Polaban in Nymburk.