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Polaban Nymburk vs Letohrad — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
CANC
15:15
Letohrad
Letohrad
3/27/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 9UMT Bohemia Poděbrady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polaban Nymburk29%
×Draw20%
Letohrad50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polaban Nymburk
1.69
Letohrad
2.25

Letohrad creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 53 away

creates per match

Polaban Nymburk
1.20
Letohrad
1.19

allows per match

Polaban Nymburk
3.30
Letohrad
2.17

finishing

Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par
Letohrad+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polaban Nymburk ↓

Letohrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Polaban Nymburk or draw
50%
Polaban Nymburk or Letohrad
80%
Draw or Letohrad
71%

Winning margin

Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
14%
Letohrad wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
82%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
50%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
24%
Letohrad 1+ goals
89%
Letohrad 2+ goals
65%
Letohrad 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
37%
Letohrad (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polaban Nymburk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

Letohrad away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polaban Nymburk attack 1.20 + Letohrad defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.69

Letohrad attack 1.19 + Polaban Nymburk defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Polaban Nymburk scores more
29%
level
20%
Letohrad scores more
50%

Letohrad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Letohrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Polaban Nymburk vs Letohrad — Match Preview

Polaban Nymburk face Letohrad on March 27, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Polaban Nymburk host Letohrad at UMT Bohemia Poděbrady.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.