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Polaban Nymburk vs Dvůr Králové — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
FT
2 – 5
Dvůr Králové
Dvůr Králové
11/17/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 15Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polaban Nymburk31%
×Draw21%
Dvůr Králové49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polaban Nymburk
1.73
Dvůr Králové
2.20

Dvůr Králové creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 40 away

creates per match

Polaban Nymburk
1.20
Dvůr Králové
1.10

allows per match

Polaban Nymburk
3.30
Dvůr Králové
2.27

finishing

Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par
Dvůr Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polaban Nymburk ↓

Dvůr Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Polaban Nymburk or draw
51%
Polaban Nymburk or Dvůr Králové
79%
Draw or Dvůr Králové
69%

Winning margin

Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
15%
Dvůr Králové wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
82%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
52%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
25%
Dvůr Králové 1+ goals
89%
Dvůr Králové 2+ goals
64%
Dvůr Králové 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
39%
Dvůr Králové (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polaban Nymburk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

Dvůr Králové away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polaban Nymburk attack 1.20 + Dvůr Králové defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dvůr Králové attack 1.10 + Polaban Nymburk defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Polaban Nymburk scores more
31%
level
21%
Dvůr Králové scores more
49%

Dvůr Králové at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dvůr Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polaban Nymburk vs Dvůr Králové

Dvůr Králové beat Polaban Nymburk 5-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk).