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Polaban Nymburk vs Čáslav — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
PST
15:00
Čáslav
Čáslav
5/10/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 25Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polaban Nymburk26%
×Draw20%
Čáslav54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polaban Nymburk
1.62
Čáslav
2.35

Čáslav creates 45% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 69 away

creates per match

Polaban Nymburk
1.20
Čáslav
1.41

allows per match

Polaban Nymburk
3.30
Čáslav
2.04

finishing

Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par
Čáslav+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polaban Nymburk ↓

Čáslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Polaban Nymburk or draw
46%
Polaban Nymburk or Čáslav
80%
Draw or Čáslav
74%

Winning margin

Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
12%
Čáslav wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
80%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
48%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
22%
Čáslav 1+ goals
90%
Čáslav 2+ goals
68%
Čáslav 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
33%
Čáslav (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polaban Nymburk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

Čáslav away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.04 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polaban Nymburk attack 1.20 + Čáslav defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.62

Čáslav attack 1.41 + Polaban Nymburk defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Polaban Nymburk scores more
26%
level
20%
Čáslav scores more
54%

Čáslav at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Čáslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Polaban Nymburk host Čáslav

May 10, 2020: Polaban Nymburk take on Čáslav in 4. liga - Divizie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Polaban Nymburk host Čáslav at Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.