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Čáslav vs Polaban Nymburk — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Čáslav
Čáslav
CANC
13:00
Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
4/4/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 10Stadion Pod hrádkem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Čáslav72%
×Draw17%
Polaban Nymburk11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čáslav
2.46
Polaban Nymburk
0.86

Čáslav creates 186% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 12 away

creates per match

Čáslav
2.01
Polaban Nymburk
0.33

allows per match

Čáslav
1.39
Polaban Nymburk
2.92

finishing

Čáslav+0.00on par
Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čáslav ↓

Polaban Nymburk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Čáslav or draw
89%
Čáslav or Polaban Nymburk
83%
Draw or Polaban Nymburk
28%

Winning margin

Čáslav wins by 2+
50%
Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Čáslav 1+ goals
91%
Čáslav 2+ goals
70%
Čáslav 3+ goals
44%
Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
58%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
21%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Čáslav (draw refunded)
86%
Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čáslav at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

Polaban Nymburk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čáslav attack 2.01 + Polaban Nymburk defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.46

Polaban Nymburk attack 0.33 + Čáslav defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Čáslav scores more
72%
level
17%
Polaban Nymburk scores more
11%

Čáslav at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Čáslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Čáslav face Polaban Nymburk (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Čáslav hosting Polaban Nymburk. Match starts April 4, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Čáslav host Polaban Nymburk at Stadion Pod hrádkem.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.