Pokrok Krompachy vs Vranov nad Topľou

Pokrok Krompachy

CANC

15:00

Vranov nad Topľou

6/13/2021

3. liga - East · East - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy31%

×Draw24%

Vranov nad Topľou45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pokrok KrompachyExpected goals in this matchVranov nad Topľou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.69

Pokrok Krompachy

1.35

Vranov nad Topľou

1.69

Vranov nad Topľou creates 25% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 81 away

1.23

creates per match

1.14

2.23

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy

1.23

Vranov nad Topľou

1.14

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy

2.23

Vranov nad Topľou

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Vranov nad Topľou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw

55%

Pokrok Krompachy or Vranov nad Topľou

76%

Draw or Vranov nad Topľou

69%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+

13%

Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals

74%

Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals

39%

Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals

15%

Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals

82%

Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals

50%

Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)

40%

Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Vranov nad Topľou away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Vranov nad Topľou attack 1.14 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more

31%

level

24%

Vranov nad Topľou scores more

45%

Vranov nad Topľou at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vranov nad Topľou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff