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Pokrok Krompachy vs Svidník — 3. liga - East 2020

Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Svidník
Svidník
4/13/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 13Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy52%
×Draw20%
Svidník28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pokrok Krompachy
2.29
Svidník
1.65

Pokrok Krompachy creates 39% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 52 away

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy
1.23
Svidník
1.06

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy
2.23
Svidník
3.35

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par
Svidník+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Svidník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw
72%
Pokrok Krompachy or Svidník
80%
Draw or Svidník
48%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
32%
Svidník wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
90%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
66%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
40%
Svidník 1+ goals
81%
Svidník 2+ goals
49%
Svidník 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
65%
Svidník (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Svidník away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Svidník defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.29

Svidník attack 1.06 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more
52%
level
20%
Svidník scores more
28%

Pokrok Krompachy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pokrok Krompachy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Pokrok Krompachy 0–3 Svidník

Svidník beat Pokrok Krompachy 3-0 in 3. liga - East on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy in Krompachy.