Pokrok Krompachy 1–2 Slovan Giraltovce

Pokrok Krompachy

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Slovan Giraltovce

3/5/2022

3. liga - East · East - 10Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy47%

×Draw23%

Slovan Giraltovce29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pokrok KrompachyExpected goals in this matchSlovan Giraltovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.36

Pokrok Krompachy

1.78

Slovan Giraltovce

1.36

Pokrok Krompachy creates 31% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

1.23

creates per match

0.50

2.23

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy

1.23

Slovan Giraltovce

0.50

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy

2.23

Slovan Giraltovce

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw

71%

Pokrok Krompachy or Slovan Giraltovce

77%

Draw or Slovan Giraltovce

53%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+

26%

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals

83%

Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals

53%

Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals

26%

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals

74%

Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals

39%

Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)

62%

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.78

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more

47%

level

23%

Slovan Giraltovce scores more

29%

Pokrok Krompachy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pokrok Krompachy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff