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Pokrok Krompachy vs Rudňany — 3. liga - East 2020

Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rudňany
Rudňany
5/28/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 27Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy57%
×Draw19%
Rudňany24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pokrok Krompachy
2.62
Rudňany
1.68

Pokrok Krompachy creates 56% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy
1.23
Rudňany
1.13

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy
2.23
Rudňany
4.00

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par
Rudňany+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Rudňany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw
76%
Pokrok Krompachy or Rudňany
81%
Draw or Rudňany
43%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
37%
Rudňany wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
93%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
73%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
48%
Rudňany 1+ goals
81%
Rudňany 2+ goals
50%
Rudňany 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
70%
Rudňany (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Rudňany away — creates 1.13, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Rudňany defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.62

Rudňany attack 1.13 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more
57%
level
19%
Rudňany scores more
24%

Pokrok Krompachy at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Pokrok Krompachy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pokrok Krompachy vs Rudňany

Pokrok Krompachy and Rudňany drew 1-1 in 3. liga - East on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy in Krompachy.