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Pokrok Krompachy vs Raslavice — 3. liga - East 2020

Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
FT
2 – 1
Raslavice
Raslavice
10/24/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 14Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy43%
×Draw22%
Raslavice35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pokrok Krompachy
1.90
Raslavice
1.69

Pokrok Krompachy creates 12% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy
1.23
Raslavice
1.14

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy
2.23
Raslavice
2.57

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par
Raslavice+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Raslavice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw
65%
Pokrok Krompachy or Raslavice
78%
Draw or Raslavice
57%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
24%
Raslavice wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
85%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
56%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
29%
Raslavice 1+ goals
82%
Raslavice 2+ goals
50%
Raslavice 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
55%
Raslavice (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Raslavice away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Raslavice defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.90

Raslavice attack 1.14 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more
43%
level
22%
Raslavice scores more
35%

Pokrok Krompachy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pokrok Krompachy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Pokrok Krompachy 2–1 Raslavice

Pokrok Krompachy beat Raslavice 2-1 in 3. liga - East on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy in Krompachy.