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POHU vs ToTe — Suomen Cup 2018

POHU
POHU
FT
0 – 6
ToTe
ToTe
3/15/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

POHU2%
×Draw5%
ToTe94%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

POHU
0.50
ToTe
4.25

ToTe creates 750% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

POHU
0.00
ToTe
4.00

allows per match

POHU
4.50
ToTe
1.00

finishing

POHU+0.00on par
ToTe+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

POHU ↓

ToTe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–29%
0–313%
0–414%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–36%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (14%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

POHU or draw
6%
POHU or ToTe
95%
Draw or ToTe
98%

Winning margin

POHU wins by 2+
0%
ToTe wins by 2+
83%

Team goals

POHU 1+ goals
39%
POHU 2+ goals
9%
POHU 3+ goals
1%
ToTe 1+ goals
98%
ToTe 2+ goals
91%
ToTe 3+ goals
76%

Draw no bet

POHU (draw refunded)
2%
ToTe (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

POHU at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

ToTe away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

POHU attack 0.00 + ToTe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

ToTe attack 4.00 + POHU defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 4.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

POHU scores more
2%
level
5%
ToTe scores more
94%

ToTe at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "ToTe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: POHU 0–6 ToTe

ToTe beat POHU 6-0 in Suomen Cup on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.