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POHU vs Ponnistus II — Suomen Cup 2018

POHU
POHU
Pens
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Ponnistus II
Ponnistus II
2/22/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Preliminary RoundTöölö PK 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

POHU5%
×Draw8%
Ponnistus II87%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

POHU
0.83
Ponnistus II
3.75

Ponnistus II creates 352% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

POHU
0.00
Ponnistus II
3.00

allows per match

POHU
4.50
Ponnistus II
1.67

finishing

POHU+0.00on par
Ponnistus II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

POHU ↓

Ponnistus II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–310%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

POHU or draw
13%
POHU or Ponnistus II
92%
Draw or Ponnistus II
95%

Winning margin

POHU wins by 2+
1%
Ponnistus II wins by 2+
72%

Team goals

POHU 1+ goals
56%
POHU 2+ goals
20%
POHU 3+ goals
5%
Ponnistus II 1+ goals
97%
Ponnistus II 2+ goals
88%
Ponnistus II 3+ goals
70%

Draw no bet

POHU (draw refunded)
5%
Ponnistus II (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

POHU at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

Ponnistus II away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

POHU attack 0.00 + Ponnistus II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ponnistus II attack 3.00 + POHU defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

POHU scores more
5%
level
8%
Ponnistus II scores more
87%

Ponnistus II at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Ponnistus II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: POHU 3–3 Ponnistus II

POHU and Ponnistus II drew 3-3 in Suomen Cup on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Töölö PK 3 TN in Helsinki.