POHU / Hurjin 0–2 PPS / Old Stars: Result & Stats

POHU / Hurjin

0 – 2

PPS / Old Stars

3/19/2023

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

POHU / Hurjin8%

×Draw11%

PPS / Old Stars81%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

POHU / HurjinExpected goals in this matchPPS / Old Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

4.00

POHU / Hurjin

1.33

PPS / Old Stars

4.00

PPS / Old Stars creates 201% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

4.67

3.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

POHU / Hurjin

1.00

PPS / Old Stars

4.67

allows per match

POHU / Hurjin

3.33

PPS / Old Stars

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

POHU / Hurjin+0.00on par

PPS / Old Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

POHU / Hurjin ↓

PPS / Old Stars →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–36%

0–46%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

POHU / Hurjin or draw

19%

POHU / Hurjin or PPS / Old Stars

89%

Draw or PPS / Old Stars

92%

Winning margin

POHU / Hurjin wins by 2+

PPS / Old Stars wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

POHU / Hurjin 1+ goals

74%

POHU / Hurjin 2+ goals

38%

POHU / Hurjin 3+ goals

15%

PPS / Old Stars 1+ goals

98%

PPS / Old Stars 2+ goals

90%

PPS / Old Stars 3+ goals

73%

Draw no bet

POHU / Hurjin (draw refunded)

PPS / Old Stars (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

POHU / Hurjin at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

PPS / Old Stars away — creates 4.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

POHU / Hurjin attack 1.00 + PPS / Old Stars defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

PPS / Old Stars attack 4.67 + POHU / Hurjin defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 4.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 81%?"

POHU / Hurjin scores more

level

11%

PPS / Old Stars scores more

81%

PPS / Old Stars at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "PPS / Old Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff