Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

POHU / Hurjin vs MPS — Suomen Cup 2018

POHU / Hurjin
POHU / Hurjin
FT
2 – 1
MPS
MPS
3/9/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

POHU / Hurjin15%
×Draw16%
MPS68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

POHU / Hurjin
1.29
MPS
2.81

MPS creates 118% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

POHU / Hurjin
1.00
MPS
2.29

allows per match

POHU / Hurjin
3.33
MPS
1.57

finishing

POHU / Hurjin+0.00on par
MPS+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

POHU / Hurjin ↓

MPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

POHU / Hurjin or draw
32%
POHU / Hurjin or MPS
84%
Draw or MPS
85%

Winning margin

POHU / Hurjin wins by 2+
6%
MPS wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

POHU / Hurjin 1+ goals
72%
POHU / Hurjin 2+ goals
37%
POHU / Hurjin 3+ goals
14%
MPS 1+ goals
94%
MPS 2+ goals
76%
MPS 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

POHU / Hurjin (draw refunded)
18%
MPS (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

POHU / Hurjin at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

MPS away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

POHU / Hurjin attack 1.00 + MPS defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

MPS attack 2.29 + POHU / Hurjin defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

POHU / Hurjin scores more
15%
level
16%
MPS scores more
68%

MPS at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "MPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: POHU / Hurjin vs MPS

POHU / Hurjin beat MPS 2-1 in Suomen Cup on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.